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High Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus Among a Middle-Aged Population in Iran: A Longitudinal Study

      Abstract

      Objectives

      There are few data concerning the incidence rates of diabetes in Iran. This study aimed to determine the incidence of diabetes and its risk factors in a middle-aged population in Iran.

      Methods

      All of the people who participated in the first phase of the Shahroud eye cohort study were invited to the study in 2014; after signing informed consent forms, a total of 4737 people 45 to 69 years of age were enrolled in the second phase of the study (participation rate: 91.3%). The 5-year incidence rate of diabetes was determined by age and sex, and we used the binomial logistic regression model to calculate the risk ratio.

      Results

      The prevalence of diabetes in the second phase was 20.19% in men, 26.45% in women and 23.89% in the total group. The 5-year incidence of diabetes was 11.19% in men, 15.55% in women and 13.73% in both sexes. With increases in age, the incidence of diabetes rose in both sexes. Age (risk ratio [RR]: 1.02; CI 95%: 1.01 to 1.03) hypertension (RR: 1.41; CI 95%: 1.15 to 1.74), being overweight (RR: 2.17; CI 95%: 1.64 to 2.88) and obesity (RR: 3.4; CI 95%: 2.53 to 4.41) were associated with increased risks for the incidence of diabetes.

      Conclusions

      This study is 1 of the few studies in Iran that has reported the incidence of diabetes. Because the incidence of diabetes was high in the studied population, it is necessary for the health system to design and implement emergency intervention to prevent further spread of diabetes and its complications.

      Résumé

      Objectifs

      On dispose de peu de données sur les taux d'incidence du diabète en Iran. La présente étude avait pour but de déterminer l'incidence du diabète et ses facteurs de risque dans une population d'âge mûr de l'Iran.

      Méthodes

      En 2014, nous avons invité à l'étude toutes les personnes qui avaient participé à la première phase de l'étude Shahroud Eye Cohort Study (ShECS); après la signature des formulaires de consentement éclairé, nous avons inscrit un total de 4737 personnes de 45 à 69 ans à la deuxième phase de l'étude (taux de participation : 91,3 %). Nous avons déterminé le taux d'incidence du diabète après 5 ans selon l'âge et le sexe, et nous avons utilisé le modèle de régression logistique binomiale pour calculer le risque relatif.

      Résultats

      À la deuxième phase, la prévalence du diabète était de 20,19 % chez les hommes, de 26,45 % chez les femmes et de 23,89 % pour la totalité du groupe. L'incidence du diabète après 5 ans était de 11,19 % chez les hommes, de 15,55 % chez les femmes et de 13,73 % chez les deux sexes. Avec l'avancement en âge, l'incidence du diabète augmentait chez les deux sexes. L'âge (risque relatif [RR] : 1,02; IC à 95 % : 1,01 à 1,03), l'hypertension (RR : 1,41; IC à 95 % : 1,15 à 1,74), l'excès de poids (RR : 2,17; IC à 95 % : 1,64 à 2,88) et l'obésité (RR : 3,4; IC à 95 % : 2,53 à 4,41) étaient associés à l'augmentation des risques de l'incidence du diabète.

      Conclusions

      Cette étude est l'une des rares études réalisées en Iran qui a rapporté l'incidence du diabète. Puisque l'incidence du diabète était élevée dans la population étudiée, le système de santé doit concevoir et mettre en place une intervention d'urgence pour empêcher la propagation du diabète et de ses complications.

      Keywords

      Mots clés

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